Multi-criteria evaluation of nuclear option

Abstract

When evaluating power system expansion scenarios there is a need to take into consideration a range of measurable and non-measurable impacts. Measurable impacts are fixed and variable production costs and, recently, external costs. Nonmeasurable impacts include public attitude to a certain energy technology and investor's risk in achieving the expected profit. Public attitude has a large, and sometimes essential impact on decision-making and can be divided in objective and subjective part. Investor's risk in achieving the expected profit is mostly associated with possible changes of domestic or foreign regulations or policy that can influence power plant operation and long-term fuel availability and price. The objective of multi-criteria evaluation, after weighting and quantification of all impacts, is to determine the most acceptable power system expansion option. In the article a simplified quantification was made of measurable and nonmeasurable elements that affect future investment decision. For that purpose possible relative values of non-measurable impacts of different options will be determined (their weights and impact on relative increase of annual costs). Four possible technologies will be compared: nuclear power plant, coal power plant, combined cycle gas plant and wind power plant in combination with gas plant. The expected change of non-measurable impacts on investment decision in the period 2010-2030 was analysed as well as the influence of those changes on future investment decisions.