MODELING PROJECT RISKS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND POWER PLANT PROJECT

Abstract

The construction of a wind power plant is a complex project that requires many years, during  which time all the interested parties are exposed to numerous risks, including some with  potentially devastating consequences. In this article, a methodology for modeling project risks  in the development of a wind power plant project is presented, taking into account the specific  circumstances in the Republic of Croatia. The applied method of risk analysis belongs to the  group of probability methods that use Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The identified risks and  manner of conducting qualitative and quantitative risk analysis are described in detail. Using  the example of the risk analysis of a project for a 20x1 MW wind power plant, the economic  criteria for decision making are explained and incorporated in a model. This risk analysis model  for the wind power plant projects in the Republic of Croatia is constructed in Microsoft Excel  and intended for decision makers and project developers. Although the reference case in the  model is wind power plant project in Croatia, it can be adapted to any market whatsoever.